Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020
Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020
From the NOAA Forecast;
"May 21, 2020An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary
NHC is the source of the info below
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity during October was slightly above normal for the Atlantic basin. Five named storms formed during the month and one of them became a hurricane. Another hurricane, Lorenzo, carried over from the month of September. One tropical depression also formed and failed to strengthen. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane forms in the basin in October about every third year.
NOAA's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast
NOAA's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast
"August 8, 2019 NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway."
Colorado State's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast
"We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average. While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the...
NOAA 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
a. Predicted Activity
NOAA's outlook for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a near-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (40%), followed by equal chances (30%) of an above-normal season and a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019
"We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them....