Atlantic hurricane season shows no signs of slowing

NOAA's 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Update

Roy
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is well underway, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for an above-average hurricane season, according to the annual mid-season update issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.  The latest outlook reflects that the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15-21, including 7-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which 3-5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook includes the 5 named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the earliest 5th named storm on record.

Near- or below-normal 2021 hurricane season predicted for the Central Pacific

Source: NOAA

Roy

There is a 45% chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 35% chance for below-normal activity, and 20% chance of an above-normal season. 


CSU 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research

Roy
CSU released its second forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 3 June. "We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making...

CSU researchers now predicting extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

Roy
"Colorado State University hurricane researchers have increased their forecast and now predict an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2020, citing very warm sea surface temperatures and very low wind shear in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures averaged over the past month are at their fourth-highest levels since 1982, trailing only the very active Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2005, 2010 and 2017. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also associated with a more unstable atmosphere as well as moister air, both of which favor organized thunderstorm activity that is necessary for...

NOAA updated 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Roy

August 6, 2020 - Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Today, the agency released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May.


EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020

Source:Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

Roy
We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current warm neutral ENSO conditions appear likely to transition to cool neutral ENSO or potentially even weak La Niña conditions by this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average; however, most of the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one...

Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary

Source: National Hurricane Center

Roy
NHC is the source of the info below Monthly Tropical Weather Summary NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone activity during October was slightly above normal for the Atlantic basin. Five named storms formed during the month and one of them became a hurricane. Another hurricane, Lorenzo, carried over from the month of September. One tropical depression also formed and failed to strengthen. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane forms in the basin in October about every third year.

NOAA's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season

Roy

"August 8, 2019 NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway."

 


Colorado State's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

Source: Colorado State University

Roy
"We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average. While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the...

NOAA 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Issued: 23 May 2019

CADO Admin
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

a. Predicted Activity

NOAA's outlook for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a near-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (40%), followed by equal chances (30%) of an above-normal season and a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019

Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

CADO Admin
"We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them....

Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood

Source: North Carolina Department of Insurance

CADO Admin

....

In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.

...


2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

From Wikipedia

CADO Admin

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane seasons, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and ended on November 30, 2018. 


Florida Hurricane Michael Claims Data

Source: Florida Office of Insurance Regulation

Roy
The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation is reporting a total of 78,688 claims as of October 18, 2018 with Total Estimated Insured Losses at $835,868,692.  See the report for additional details.

CSU team decreases forecast, now calls for near-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Source: Colorado State University

CADO Admin
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have decreased their forecast from their early April prediction and now call for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. The primary reason for this decrease is anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic. The weak La Niña that occurred this past winter has dissipated, and there is the potential that a weak El Niño could develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). However, the forecast team believes that neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are the most likely scenario for this year’s season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart...

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

CADO Admin
We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above average activity. The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane...

Hurricane Irma recovery slowed by shortages of insurance adjusters, contractors

Source: sun-sentinel.com

CADO Admin

"Much of the post-Irma frustration stemmed from dealing with catastrophe adjusters quickly trained and supervised under the governor’s Sept. 4 emergency authorization allowing suspension of normal credentialing requirements, Dominguez said.

One such adjuster was dispatched to an English-speaker’s home despite not knowing how to speak English, Dominguez said.

After Hurricane Harvey, “the cream of the crop” of independent insurance adjusters headed to Texas to work for insurance companies there, Papy said. Then, when Irma looked likely to strike Florida, insurers here were forced to compete to secure services from adjusters who didn’t go to Texas." (from the article)

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