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Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020

Source: NOAA

Roy

From the NOAA Forecast;

"May 21, 2020An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

 

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020

Source:Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

Roy

We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current warm neutral ENSO conditions appear likely to transition to cool neutral ENSO or potentially even weak La Niña conditions by this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average; however, most of the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

 

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7

CADO Admin
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

000
WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating 
organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New 
Jersey.  A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show 
that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central 
and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is 
reduced to 35 kt.  The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on 
surface observations.

Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and 
become post-tropical on Saturday.  After that, the system is 
expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system 
over southeastern Canada.  The new intensity forecast has only 
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt.  The 
track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered 
generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation 
between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an 
approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes.  The 
storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so 
the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial 
position and motion.  The new forecast lies close to the consensus 
models.
 
Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now 
occurring well away from the center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey 
and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may 
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor 
drainage.  Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread 
river flooding is not expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours 
over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most 
of Long Island.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 41.0N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

CADO Admin
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

000
FONT11 KNHC 110234
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020               
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
AUGUSTA ME     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CONCORD NH     34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WORCESTER MA   34 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 35   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
BOSTON MA      34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
N

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 7

CADO Admin
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

000
WTNT21 KNHC 110231
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST
ROCKAWAY...NEW YORK.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY NEW YORK TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
INCLUDING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  74.2W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  74.2W AT 11/0300Z...INLAND
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  74.3W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N  74.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)

CADO Admin
...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 41.0, -74.2 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

CADO Admin
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

000
FONT11 KNHC 102243 CCA
PWSAT1
                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6...CORRECTED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020                                            

CORRECTED PROBABILITIES IN TABLE

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CONCORD NH     34  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 20   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
BOSTON MA      34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34 68   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
BRIDGEPORT CT  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34 54   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 35   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 6

CADO Admin
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

000
WTNT41 KNHC 102046
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the 
central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep 
convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The 
deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and 
southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with 
the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the 
center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix 
from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure 
estimate of 998 mb.
 
Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to 
interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to 
persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay 
is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those 
winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by 
that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone 
and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours.
 
The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast 
reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally 
northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a 
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching 
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track 
forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of 
the guidance envelope.
 
Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the 
center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to 
affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania
northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New
England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas
with poor drainage.  While isolated minor flooding is possible,
widespread river flooding is not expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and
tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts
of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 39.5N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  11/0600Z 41.7N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 45.7N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z 49.6N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brennan
 

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Hurricane Season,  Know before you go!

Weather Discussions

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2020 Hurricane Storm Names

  •  Arthur 
  •  Bertha
  •  Cristobal
    • CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

      Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that the center of 
      Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC) 
      along the coast of southeast Louisiana between the mouth of the 
      Mississippi River and Grand Isle.  Maximum sustained winds were 
      estimated near 50 mph (85 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 
      992 mb (29.29 inches). 

  •  Dolly
  •  Edouard
  •  Fay
  •  Gonzalo
  •  Hanna
  •  Isaias
  •  Josephine
  •  Kyle
  •  Laura
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  •  Nana
  •  Omar
  •  Paulette
  •  Rene
  •  Sally
  •  Teddy
  •  Vicky
  •  Wilfred

Some Notable Cane Activity since we have been online

Virtual Claims Adjuster