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Atmospheric River Brings Dangerous Flash Flooding and Heavy Mountain Snow to Central and Southern California

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Source: National Weather Service

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Feb 05 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 05 2024 - 12Z Wed Feb 07 2024

...Life threatening Flash Flooding continues for Southern California Monday...

...Heavy Snow for parts of the Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Four Corners Region...

...Much above average high temperatures continue for the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest...

The threat for flash flooding centers on Southern California Monday as a deep upper-level trough/Pacific storm system and associated Atmospheric River slowly pivots along the West Coast and pushes further inland. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce very heavy rainfall fueled by the influx of anomalously high moisture, favorable upslope flow, and increasing instability. A High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4) is once again in effect Monday for portions of the LA Basin and the eastern Transverse Ranges, with an encompassing Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) extending westward along the Transverse Ranges and southward along the Peninsular Ranges. Additional rainfall totals generally between 5-8" will be possible, which will bring 48-totals as high as 8-14" for some locations. Increasingly saturated conditions and ongoing flooding will be further exacerbated by this additional rainfall, continuing the threat for life-threatening, locally catastrophic flash, urban, and small stream flooding, as well as a threat for debris flows and mudslides. A Slight Risk remains in effect for lingering locally heavy rainfall northwestward towards the central California coast, and also into portions of the Mojave Desert. In addition, some strong gusty winds will remain possible, though wind speeds/gusts should be trending downward overall. Coastal flooding and high surf will also remain a concern through Monday evening.

Very heavy mountain snows will continue for higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, generally above 5000 feet, with storm total snowfall of several feet expected. Snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr and gusty winds upwards of 60 mph will keep travel dangerous to impossible due to whiteout conditions. Moisture from the system will also continue to spread further inland, bringing heavy higher elevation snows to the regional mountain ranges of the Central Great Basin of Nevada northeastward into portions of the Northern Rockies of Idaho and Wyoming Monday, and into the Four
Corners region Tuesday. Storm total snowfall of around foot will be common, with some locally higher totals of 2+ feet possible. Lower elevations of the Great Basin will see a mix of rain and some snow, but any snow accumulations should be limited. Further south into the Desert Southwest, the ongoing influx of moisture will lead to heavier rainfall Tuesday, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect for portions of western Arizona and Southern Nevada. Rainfall totals generally between 1-3" may lead to some scattered instances of flash flooding.

Elsewhere, some moderate to locally heavy showers are expected further north from Northern California into the Pacific Northwest as the Pacific system pushes inland. Some showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for portions of Florida and northeastward along coastal Georgia and South Carolina as a low pressure system pushes away from the coast. The rest of
the central and eastern U.S. should remain dry. High temperatures will remain anomalously warm for the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest as upper-level ridging remains in place. High temperatures in the 40s and low 50s are upwards of 20-30 degrees above average. Some daily record-tying/breaking high temperatures will be possible for the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Highs temperatures generally from the Rockies to the Northeast will be above average and mild.  



Here is a link to the full Forecast Discussion on NWS wbesite;





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From the KB

Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood


In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.


Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles

The source of the information below is the Insurance Information Institute,

Nineteen states and the District of Columbia have hurricane deductibles: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington DC. Listed below are reports for these states detailing hurricane deductibles.


Historical Hurricane Tracks

Subject: Historical Hurricane Tracks
Description: The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows you to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and Eastern North Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data. 

Source: NOAA 

Some Notable Cane Activity since we have been online


Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy") was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as the second-costliest hurricane in United States history. Classified as the eighteenth named storm, tenth hurricane and second major hurricane of the year, Sandy was a Category 3 storm at its peak intensity when it made landfall in Cuba.[1] While it was a Category 2 storm off the coast of the Northeastern United States, the storm became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record (as measured by diameter, with winds spanning 1,100 miles (1,800 km)).[2][3] Estimates as of March 2014 assess damage to have been over $68 billion (2013 USD), a total surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina.[4] At least 286 people were killed along the path of the storm in seven countries. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Photos - Discussions: Sandy Disscussion -


Hurricane Irene, the storm slowly leveled-off in intensity as it struck the Bahamas and then curved northward after passing east of Grand Bahama. Continuing to weaken, Irene was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on August 27, becoming the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Ike in 2008. Early on the following day, the storm re-emerged into the Atlantic from southeastern Virginia. Although Irene remained a hurricane over land, it weakened to a tropical storm while making yet another landfall in the Little Egg Inlet in southeastern New Jersey on August 28. A few hours later, Irene made its ninth and final landfall in Brooklyn, New York City. Early on August 29, Irene transitioned into an extratropical cyclone hitting Vermont/New Hampshire after remaining inland as a tropical cyclone for less than 12 hours. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Photos - Discussions:


Ike developed a large wind field as it moved northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 3 days, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 275 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds extending up to 115 miles from the center. The hurricane gradually intensified as it moved across the Gulf toward the Texas coast. Ike made landfall over the north end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of September 13 as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane weakened as it moved inland across eastern Texas and Arkansas and became extratropical over the middle Mississippi Valley on September 14. It then moved rapidly through the Ohio valley and into Canada, producing wind gusts to hurricane force along the way. Source: NOAA


Hurricane Katrina Was the deadliest and most destructive Atlantic tropical cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It is the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. Katrina is the seventh most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, part of the 2005 season that included three of the six most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever documented (along with #1 Wilma and #4 Rita). At least 1,833 people died in the hurricane and subsequent floods, making it the deadliest U.S. hurricane since the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane; total property damage was estimated at $108 billion (2005 USD),[1] roughly four times the damage brought by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Photos Discussions: 


The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was the costliest Atlantic hurricane season, until the following year. More than half of the 16 tropical cyclones brushed or struck the United States. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. Due to a Modoki El Niño – a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific – activity was above average. The first storm, Alex, developed offshore of the Southeastern United States on July 31. It brushed the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, causing one death and $7.5 million (2004 USD) in damage.[nb 1] Several storms resulted in minor impact, including tropical storms Bonnie, Earl, Hermine, and Matthew. In addition, hurricanes Danielle, Karl, and Lisa, Tropical Depression Ten, Subtropical Storm Nicole and Tropical Storm Otto caused no impact on land while tropical cyclones. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Hurricane Isabel was the costliest, deadliest, and strongest hurricane in the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. The ninth named storm, fifth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season, Isabel formed near the Cape Verde Islands from a tropical wave on September 6 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It moved northwestward, and within an environment of light wind shear and warm waters it steadily strengthened to reach peak winds of 165 mph (265 km/h) on September 11. After fluctuating in intensity for four days, Isabel gradually weakened and made landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) on September 18. It quickly weakened over land and became extratropical over western Pennsylvania the next day. Source: Wikipedia Photo Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC
Discussions: 458,000 ISO- Hurricane Isabel Claims, "Isabel", is a Hot Potato headed behind? and more..

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