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CSU researchers now predicting extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

"Colorado State University hurricane researchers have increased their forecast and now predict an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2020, citing very warm sea surface temperatures and very low wind shear in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures averaged over the past month are at their fourth-highest levels since 1982, trailing only the very active Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2005, 2010 and 2017. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also associated with a more unstable atmosphere as well as moister air, both of which favor organized thunderstorm activity that is necessary for hurricane development."

. . .

24 named storms

"The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 24 named storms in 2020, including the nine named storms that have already formed (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias). Of those, researchers expect 12 to become hurricanes (including the two that have already formed, Hanna and Isaias) and five to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Twelve hurricanes is the most the team has ever predicted in their August forecast. This is an increase from the early July seasonal forecast which predicted 20 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes."

. . .

Landfalling probability included in report
The report also includes the post-Aug. 4 probability of major hurricanes making landfall in the continental U.S. and Caribbean:

74 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (full-season average for the last century is 52 percent)
49 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (full-season average for the last century is 31 percent)
48 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (full-season average for the last century is 30 percent)
63 percent for the Caribbean (full-season average for the last century is 42 percent)

The above comes from the CSU articled posted on 8/5/2020 a link to the article is posted below you can follow it for additional information.


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