COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 3–16, 2025
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Forecast
While the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet over the past ~10 days, we anticipate the season picking up over the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring one area with a high potential for TC formation in the next week. Based on global model forecasts, this area could generate moderate to large levels of ACE if it were to form. Global model ensembles are pretty aggressive with additional tropical cyclone development in days 8–14, with potential formations in the eastern Atlantic as well as in the western Caribbean/southern Gulf. Large-scale environmental vertical wind shear conditions are forecast to become more conducive over the two week period, as the MJO moves across the Western Hemisphere and potentially over Africa during the two-week period. Historically, MJO events over Africa are associated with above-average Atlantic hurricane activity.
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The above is from the CSU Two-week Forecasts. A link to the complete forecast is provided below, it is a 9 page pdf.