CSU Forecast for 2023 Hurricane Activity
as of April 13, 2023
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2023
We anticipate that the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below-average activity. Current neutral ENSO conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are much warmer than normal, so if a robust El Niño does not develop, the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. Larger-than-normal uncertainty exists with this outlook. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
(as of 13 April 2023)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1, Michael M. Bell2 and Alexander J. DesRosiers3
In Memory of William M. Gray4
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2023
Forecast Parameter and 1991–2020
Average (in parentheses) Issue Date 13 April 2023
- Named Storms (NS) (14.4) - 13
- Named Storm Days (NSD) (69.4) - 55
- Hurricanes (H) (7.2) - 6
- Hurricane Days (HD) (27.0) - 25
- Major Hurricanes (MH) (3.2) - 2
- Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (7.4) - 5
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (123) - 100
- ACE West of 60°W (73) - 55
- Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (135%) - 105
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 44% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida)- 22% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 28% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
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You can follow the links below for the full CSU Hurricane Seasonal forecast which is the source of the above information
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