COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 14 – OCTOBER 27, 2021

Author: Roy/Monday, September 6, 2021/Categories: Hurricanes

"We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two weeks is normal (60%), with above-normal and below-normal both assigned a 20% chance of occurring, respectively."

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2 Forecast

    "We believe that the most likely category for ACE during the next two weeks is normal (60% chance), with above-normal and below-normal both having a 20% chance of occurring. There are currently no active Atlantic tropical cyclones, and the National Hurricane Center is only monitoring one area with a very low chance of formation in the next couple of days before interacting with a front, likely ending its chances of tropical cyclone development. However, vertical wind shear does look to become anomalously weak by next week over the western Caribbean, due to more conducive phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), combined with the continued developing La Niña event. The western Caribbean is an area where strong hurricanes tend to develop during the latter part of the season (Figure 1). "

The above comes from the two week forecast. The full forecast is avaiable below in pdf format.

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