host posted on August 09, 2008 15:22
NOAA’s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook update indicates an 85% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
The conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions predicted in our May outlook are now in place over the tropical Atlantic. These conditions, combined with strong early-season activity, yield increased confidence that the 2008 season will be above normal. We expect 2008 to be the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began in 1995.
Although seasons with similar conditions to those now in place and seasons with similar early-season activity have generally been above-normal, they have featured a wide range of activity. Allowing for uncertainties, we estimate a 67% probability for each of the following seasonal (June-November) ranges, all of which are above average:
- 14-18 named storms,
- 7-10 Hurricanes,
- 3-6 Major Hurricanes,
- An ACE range 140%-230% of the median
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