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Colorado State's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

Source: Colorado State University

"We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average. While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

 

POST-31 JULY PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING UNITED STATES 
COASTAL AREAS:

  • 1) Entire U.S. coastline - 53% (full-season average for last century is 52%)
  • 2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 31% (full-season average for last
    century is 31%)
  • 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 31% (full season average for last century is 30%)

POST-31 JULY PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

1) 43% (full-season average for last century is 42%)

(as of 5 August 2019)"

The above is an excerpt from the Forecast by Colorado State University, use the link for the full report.

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