CSU Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Activity

August 6 Update

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE

ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025

"We have maintained our forecast for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although noting lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal. Multiple indicators anticipate likely cool ENSO neutral conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral conditions typically provide a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over recent weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June–July are associated with less active hurricane seasons. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that even one hurricane making landfall nearby results in an impactful season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."

(as of 6 August 2025) 

By Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, and Levi G. Silvers
With Special Assistance from the TC-RAMS Team and Carl J. Schreck III
In Memory of William M. Gray

. . .

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2025

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: (AFTER 5 AUGUST)

1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 48% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key,
Florida) – 24% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida)
westward to Brownsville – 31% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN (10–20°N, 88–60°W)

1) 52% (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)

The source of the above Updated information is the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science. A link to the source document which contains additional information and details is provided below, it is a 50 page pdf.   A link to the CSU Forecast page is also provided below.   The photo comes from the CatAdjuster.org Photo Gallery and is of Hurricane Katrina Damage.