COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 1–OCTOBER 14, 2019

Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

"We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at above normal levels (>7 ACE). One of the primary reason that we are forecasting above normal ACE is that Hurricane Lorenzo is likely to generate 4-5 ACE before becoming post-tropical. The National Hurricane Center has two areas with a very low probability of development over the next five days. The global models indicate that there is the chance of some TC development either in the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico or in the eastern/central Atlantic at some point in the next ten days.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 1, which is typically favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity. However, there is considerable question as to whether this is an actual MJO event or just interference from a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event and its associated low-level easterly wind anomalies, as discussed in the latest weekly update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. "

The above is from the 10/1 update.  The source document is attached below.