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Last Post 08/28/2012 3:14 PM by  ChuckDeaton
Hurricane Isaac now projected to become a major hurricane (CAT3)
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CatAdjusterX
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08/26/2012 7:08 AM

    Hey folks,

    all I can say is wow! Hurricane Isaac is tracking to the extreme west and as such will spend that much more time over the 88/90 degree waters of the Gulf of Mexico. With that, a CAT 3 is now a realistic possibility and landfall is expected somewhere near the mouth of the Mississippi river. Those of us who remember Katrina (how could we ever forget) knows that brings the Mississippi Gulf River Outlet into play. This system of levees will funnel all that storm surge right up NOLA's wazoo as well as Lake Ponchatrain.

    Broward county and Miami Dade county in Florida has multiple power outtages as of now. It does appear that Florida will be spared by the bulk of this sytem although Key West is still in the crosshairs 

     

    "A good leader leads..... ..... but a great leader is followed !!" CatAdjusterX@gmail.com
    olderthendirt
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    08/26/2012 9:42 AM

    Offfical forcast is still only a Cat 2 (NHC) but the track has moved westward. The hurricane warning runs east from the mouth of the Mississippi but does not include NOLA yet. That might change today but somewhere on the stretch between Mobile and Bay St. Louis appears to be the target of the hour. Isaac is still getting his act together and once he reaches hurricane strength the models should give us a better idea of where and how strong. It is tough being on an extended assignment, part of me wants to run south. If you have not already good day to check you gear again. A Cat 2 or 3 into NOLA from the SE would not be good.

     

    11AM update and NOLA is now under a Hurricane watch. Some models still trending west.

    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    kmerian
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    08/26/2012 6:13 PM
    I notice Isaac is tracking even farther west now. It looks like landfall just to the east of NOLA as of right now. But several models are predicting landfall near Beaumont, Texas. Looks like it might be another Rita.
    margar1
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    08/26/2012 8:24 PM
    Rampin up now...Broward/Dade gettin some nasty squalls as well.
    Mark S Garland
    ChuckDeaton
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    08/26/2012 11:05 PM
    My guess is that Hurricane Issac will make landfall West of New Orleans, somewhere South of Lafayette. The storm surge will go into the marsh and the wind will diminish before the storm reaches heavily populated areas. The rainfall, unless it is over 20 inches, will not do any appreciable damage in New Orleans. The MRGO channel is blocked, the Corp has shored up the levees and the flood pumps will be operational this time around. I doubt that Metairie will flood this time around. East New Orleans may flood, but many of those houses have never been rebuilt.
    "Prattling on and on about being an ass with experience doesn't make someone experienced. It just makes you an ass." Rod Buvens, Pilot grunt
    olderthendirt
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    08/26/2012 11:56 PM
    So the CORP has built an earth dam and a surge protector. They also claimed the leeves were safe before 2005. Time will tell. But the biggest threat may be a storm for the SE that pushes the water for Lake P over the leeves. This was the worst case that did not happen in Katrina. I sure hope you are right.
    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    ChuckDeaton
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    08/27/2012 11:29 AM
    Even though the Pontchartrain levee was not breached by Hurricane Katrina, there was flooding right at the foot of the levee. We worked the claim at University of New Orleans (UNO) and several commercial flood claims along the road at the foot of the levee.

    This storm may very will emulate Hurricane Lili which lost steam as it came across Vermillion Bay and came ashore in the marsh South of Abbeville.
    "Prattling on and on about being an ass with experience doesn't make someone experienced. It just makes you an ass." Rod Buvens, Pilot grunt
    stormcrow
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    08/27/2012 12:22 PM
    This morning it looks more and more like NOLA is the target on or just before Katrinas 7th anniversary. But a cat 1 is more likley. One thing is the most of NOLA missed hurricane force winds last time and may not this time. Surge and up to 20" of rain could really test the pumps and the levees. This is no Katrina but NOLA will not have an easy time, unless it misses.
    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
    MPaxton
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    08/28/2012 1:14 PM
    ANYONE NEEDING AN ASSISTANT IM AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY---228-348-3179!!!!!!
    stormcrow
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    08/28/2012 1:18 PM
    It seems like this took for ever but Isaac is a hurricane. Looks like it will pass very near to Houma west of NOLA. It seems likely that NOLA will suffer from stronger winds throughout the city then was the case during Katrina. There could be a lot of flooding but they are confident the levees will hold. Best updates are on radio WWL in NOLA. This is likley to be a major rain event in the drought areas.
    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
    ChuckDeaton
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    08/28/2012 3:14 PM
    Unfortunately very few people in drought areas have flood insurance ....................
    "Prattling on and on about being an ass with experience doesn't make someone experienced. It just makes you an ass." Rod Buvens, Pilot grunt
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