"Slightly More Storms than Average with Increased Chances for Landfalls in North America

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released a preliminary hurricane season forecast for 2008. They believe the waning La Niña conditions and a continued warm water cycle in the Atlantic Basin will be the two defining factors influencing the 2008 hurricane season, causing the number of storms to be slightly above average but, more importantly, increasing the chance for U.S. landfalling storms.

"The warming is not uniform across the entire Atlantic. In some areas where hurricanes normally form - the central and eastern tropical Atlantic - ocean water temperatures are near or below normal. This should limit the number of storms, so we do not expect a near record high number like in the 2005 season. However, considering other factors, the number of storms should be slightly higher than historical averages", said Bastardi. "The warmest waters relative to normal will be in the northern areas of the Atlantic, especially toward the North American continent. This could potentially increase the threat of major landfalls to the U.S. coast." (source:accuweather.com)

"WASHINGTON—April 21, 2008 - Federal windstorm insurance offered through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) would needlessly displace the private market, disrupt existing state funds, and create a significant burden for U.S. taxpayers, according to the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI).

PCI asks the U.S. Senate not to add wind insurance to the flood program (as proposed within H.R. 3121, the Flood Insurance Reform and Modernization Act) because either private or state residual markets for windstorm coverage already exist for more than 99 percent of all coastal properties in the United States. Only properties in significant disrepair, representing less than 1 percent of the total, are uninsurable through these programs.

The following coastal states (and the District of Columbia) have a Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plan: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, and Washington. Additionally, five states (Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas) have programs designed specifically to provide windstorm coverage, and Florida and Louisiana each have a Citizens Property Insurance Corporation."
(source: Property Casualty Insurers Association of America)

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2007), a multi-disciplinary collaboration of scientists and engineers, has released the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)—the first comprehensive framework for comparing earthquake likelihoods throughout all of California. It provides important new information for improving seismic safety engineering, revising building codes, setting insurance rates, and helping communities prepare for inevitable future earthquakes.

In developing the UCERF, the 2007 Working Group revised earlier forecasts for Southern California (WGCEP 1995) and the San Francisco Bay Area (WGCEP 2003) by incorporating new data on active faults and an improved scientific understanding of how faults rupture to produce large earthquakes. It extended the forecast across the entire state using a uniform methodology, allowing for the first time meaningful comparisons of earthquake probabilities in urbanized areas such as Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay Area, as well as comparisons among the large faults in different parts of the state.  (source: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) )

"State Farm is still filing motions this afternoon asking that a federal judge throw out a whistle-blower lawsuit against the company.

The insurance company maintains two former claims adjusters, Ocean Springs sisters Cori and Kerri Rigsby, have no first-hand knowledge that the company mishandled Katrina claims, comparing them to "Chicken Littles" with groundless allegations.

State Farm also argues that the lawsuit should not stand because the Rigsbys based it on confidential documents stolen from the company. Further, State Farm says, the sisters have failed to show that the insurance company filed false Katrina claims with the National Flood Insurance Program, as alleged." (source:sunherald.com)

April 9th Hurricane Forecast

	Dec  7th, 2007	April 9th, 2008
Named Storms	13	15
Named Storm Days	60	80
Hurricanes	7	8
Hurricane Days	30	40
Intense Hurricanes	3	4
Intense Hurricane Days	6	9