CSU 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast
Roy
CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research
CSU released its second forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 3 June.
"We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted." (as of 3 June 2021)
. . .
| Forecast Parameters |
CSU Forecast for 2021 |
Average for 1991-2020 |
| Named Storms |
18 |
14.4 |
| Named Storm Days |
80 |
69.4 |
| Hurricanes |
8 |
7.2 |
| Hurricane Days |
35 |
27.0 |
| Major Hurricanes |
4 |
3.2 |
| Major Hurricane Days |
9 |
7.4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy+ |
150 |
123 |
| +A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence. |
. . .
Landfalling probability included in report
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
• 69 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)
• 45 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)
• 44 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)
• 58 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent)
The source of the above is the CSU Forecast. A link to the updated forecast is provided below, it is a pdf.
AccuWeather's Atlantic 2021 Hurricane Season forecast predicts that we could see 16-20 named storms, 7-10 Hurricanes, 3-5 Major Hurricanes and 3-5 direct impacts on the U.S., here is a link to their latest forecast: AccuWeather's 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast.
More forecast to come.
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