CSU Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Activity

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE

ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025

"We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."

(as of 3 April 2025) 

By Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, and Levi G. Silvers
With Special Assistance from the TC-RAMS Team and Carl J. Schreck III
In Memory of William M. Gray

. . .

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2025

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 51% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key,
Florida) – 26% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida)
westward to Brownsville – 33% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN (10–20°N, 88–60°W)

1) 56% (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)

The source of the above information is the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science. A link to the source document which contains additional information and details is provided below, it is a 41 page pdf.   A link to the CSU Forecast page is also provided below.   The photo comes from the CatAdjuster.org Photo Gallery and is of Hurricane Katrina Damage.