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Last Post 08/13/2007 6:14 PM by  yumadj
90L is it the real deal to be TD 4?
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stormcrow
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08/11/2007 4:42 PM

    and then Dean. This system has left Africa, the models have been all over it last couple of days. Could this be a real long tracker with eyes on the east cost about 8/24?? stay tuned.

    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
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    stormcrow
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    08/12/2007 11:40 AM

    With all the models (except NOGAPS) bringing this to the islands in 5-6 days and the east coast (10-11days) or gulf (11-13 days) how long before the vendors start phoning. My quess some by Tuseday most when CNN or Fox panic.

    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
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    01Snake
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    08/12/2007 2:43 PM
    I can already hear some adjusters packing their gear. lol
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    claims_ray
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    08/12/2007 3:53 PM
    I don't think so I haven't heard any Buffet.
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    MDC
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    08/12/2007 11:21 PM
    What Dr. Jeff Masters ( co-founded The Weather Underground) is saying about 90L

    What the computer models say
    Watching the computer model runs for 90L is not for the faint of heart. All the major models except the NOGAPS develop the system into a tropical storm or hurricane that tracks westward over the Atlantic, reaching the lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday night, August 16. There are four possible scenarios to consider:

    1) A strong trough of low pressure is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. at that time, and this trough may deflect 90L northwards so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands, and then recurves harmlessly out to sea.

    2) In keeping with the steering pattern we've observed since late July, the trough is expected to rapidly move onward, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. If the trough is not strong enough to recurve 90L out to sea, the storm will be forced to the west once more and eventually hit the East Coast of the U.S. This is the solution of last night's ECMWF model.

    3) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend's trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm would eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution preferred by this morning's GFS model.

    4) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model.

    Of the four scenarios, I believe #2 or #3 are most likely to occur--90L will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that will affect the Caribbean and/or U.S. East Coast. Residents throughout the Caribbean and U.S. should anticipate the possibility that 90L may become a hurricane--and possibly a major hurricane--that will not recurve. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday August 16 - Sunday August 19, keep in mind there is a heightened risk of a tropical storm or hurricane during that period. Be prepared to adjust your travel plans.
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    yumadj
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    08/13/2007 2:05 AM
    Then there is that one that is supposed to hit New York City.
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    stormcrow
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    08/13/2007 10:42 AM

    TD 4 at 11AM  according to the navy site.  Some models still lose this storm, some take it just north of the Islands some into the Carib. It is still a long ways from land. Expect it may be Dean or Erin. Could we have something out of the west carib? Maybe a small storm for south Texas?  And the next big Question, how close to Hawaii will Flossie get?  Recon mission to Flossie has started.

    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
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    DLucius
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    08/13/2007 5:42 PM

    If this storm hits, I want you all to thank me. About 3 months ago (Even before I looked up Hurricane names for this year) I drew a hurricane over Florida named Dean (Cause that’s my name) on my Hurricane tracking map that is on my refrigerator. Low and behold....Dean is on his way.
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    yumadj
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    08/13/2007 6:14 PM
    That's great if it doesn't end up east of Bermuda!!
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