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Ray,
I think you are right on the money.......of course it depends on how many wind and hail events blow through your neighborhood....but the last I heard, Mother Nature tries to stay away from your neighborhood........something about you having seniority on her........

LOL....
Regards,
Joe L.

I think your estimate will be pretty close. It all depends on the conditions surrounding a home. My roof for example is 15-16 years old, no leaking, but has obvious hail dmg. We have not had any sizable hail in the last 6-8 years. roof still looks good from the street. Like the other post pointed out, most roofs get replaced long before they "wear out". I have let mine go as sort of an experiment to see the long term effects. My shingles are still flexible, gravel still secure, no cracking even under the hail hits.

The hail we had 6-8 years ago was very large, grapefruit size, but was very soft. it was like snowballs hitting the streets.

JWG

When I met Janice, the roof on her home was getting old. We replaced it when it was about 20 years old and it was a 20 year roof. Shingles were just starting to curl. We now have a 25 year dimensional roof and hope it will last that long. We don't get that much hail in this area.

The popular saying around here in adjuster circles is that the only time anyone pays for their own roof is when they build the house.  Hail & wind generally gets most of them before they hit half life.  The exceptions are those fixer uppers that the previous owners pocketed the ACV or the lender retained it.

It is my experience in the Houston area that a 3-tab 20yr. composition shingled roof will need to be replaced about every 12 to 15 years as natural deteriation begins. The 30yr dimensional shingle should be ok for between 18 and 22 years. The manyfacturers give the life expectancy based upon perfect climates such as in New Mexico and a few other areas. I am not saying that the roofs will for sure need to be changed in these time periods, but it is the norm since we have the hot/wet/humid weather in Houston and most roofs do not have proper ventilation. It does amaze me that when the new homes are being built and sold for over 250k the roofs are the last thing the home buyer upgrades. I have seen more high dollar home with a 3-tab 20yr. shingle than I can shake a stick at.