Forums

Stormcrow, I told my wife last night that I've pretty much written this season off based on what the weather patterns are doing to the hurricanes.

I'm just glad that I've had a great year so far. I could do without a hurricane, but the extra cash would be nice.

You've always had a pretty good take on these storms. What's your opinion for the rest of the season at this point despite the Andrew principle (the first named storm of the season and landfall on Aug. 28)?

I suspect the rest of the season will be busy. Land fall is likely, last major to hit CONSUS was 2005

Posted By Jud G. on 15 Aug 2011 11:58 AM
Stormcrow, I told my wife last night that I've pretty much written this season off based on what the weather patterns are doing to the hurricanes.

I'm just glad that I've had a great year so far. I could do without a hurricane, but the extra cash would be nice.

You've always had a pretty good take on these storms. What's your opinion for the rest of the season at this point despite the Andrew principle (the first named storm of the season and landfall on Aug. 28)?

 Jud G. I think I am in your boat. I have been extremely fortunate and let's face it extremely "lucky" to have made a great year from the spring activity.

I was looking towards Storm season for a touch of a bonus but as of now seems unlikely. Make no mistake as the Cape Verdes are extremely active and as happens every year shifts Westward and the caribbean becomes the hotbed of activity but whilst we will see a record # of storms, With the current shifts in the jet stream and the prevailing wind patterns, I think the only likely target will be those in Bermuda.

I do see one silver lining to the lack of activity since 2005. Yes we had Ike and Gustav in 2008 but they were nowhere near the premier events like Katrina, Rita in 2005 and Jeanne Ivan from 2004 as far as length of deployment and sustained volume of work. The difference I believe was with Katrina/Rita we had such a sustained activity  due to the across the board rejection of wind claims based upon flood  scenarios and the subsequent reversal to reinspect previous slam dunk denials and cobble together a claim award. Ike and Gustav were more clear cut even with Galveston Isle and th "Slab claims" and the activity was brief.

Anyway back to the silver lining is that our industry being saturated with no experience rookies flooding the market thinking they can make some easy money (Ala' Katrina)
With the lack of almost ANY large scale deployments that would necessitate bringing rookies up, I see that number diminishing rapidly and they are moving on to other industries. The rookies who stick it out are the ones that may be in our industry for the right reasons
 

Untill those fronts from the West and Northwest subside that are making it down to the South, Southeast and East, hurricanes will have a very hard time reaching CONUS.

Jud has confirmed what Ray Hall has said for a long time. Winter storms and Spring hail, winds, tornados along with floodmake up the real bulk of Cat work. Hurricanes are the gravy.

93L is just starting to get interesting and the models like the wave behind target it. My guess is 93l will give us the H storm ( but not a hurricane), but Belize seems a likely target. The next wave,??? stay tuned.

I expect we see Harvey later today another TS only and into Belize. But the models are hinting at Irene, and she could be a beauty. Who here worked the last landfalling Irene?

We were working Irene claims when Charley hit!

5 years later. Some storms never end for those who know what they are doing.97L keeps modeling as a CONUS threat. 98L is likely a fish. TD 08 Harvey to be is for Belize. Interesting week ahead, I figure the emails will start by Tuesday and the phone calls shortly after. I am relieved my assignment will keep me busy for the rest of the year and I can miss the zoo. I expect to hear a lot of "my vendor has not paid me".