Ongoing La Niña, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 8 2022

...TROPICAL WAVES...
The first tropical wave of the season has emerged off the W coast of Africa this morning. It is currently located along 14W S of 10N this morning, moving W at 10 kts. Numerous scattered to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 08N between the coast of Africa and 22W. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing well S of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Quote from updated Forecast

"We have increased our forecast and now call for a well above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2022. We anticipate that either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions will predominate over the next several months. Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Quote from forecast

"We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two weeks is normal (60%), with above-normal and below-normal both assigned a 20% chance of occurring, respectively. ." 

There is a 45% chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 35% chance for below-normal activity, and 20% chance of an above-normal season. 

CSU released its second forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 3 June.

"We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted." (as of 3 June 2021)

Source of the above: CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research 

Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon is reminding policyholders affected by Hurricane Laura and who may be affected by Hurricane Delta that the single season named-storm/hurricane deductible law prohibits a homeowner from paying more than one named-storm/hurricane deductible in the same hurricane season.

We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current warm neutral ENSO conditions appear likely to transition to cool neutral ENSO or potentially even weak La Niña conditions by this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average; however, most of the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

NHC is the source of the info below

Tropical cyclone activity during October was slightly above normal for the Atlantic basin. Five named storms formed during the month and one of them became a hurricane. Another hurricane, Lorenzo, carried over from the month of September. One tropical depression also formed and failed to strengthen. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane forms in the basin in October about every third year.

"We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-normal amounts of hurricane activity. "

"August 8, 2019 NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway."

"We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average. While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

(as of 5 August 2019)"

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In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.

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The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane seasons, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and ended on November 30, 2018. 

The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) provides Canadians with meteorological information on hurricanes, tropical storms and post-tropical storms to help them make informed decisions to protect their safety and secure their property.

The source of the information below is the Insurance Information Institute, iii.org

Nineteen states and the District of Columbia have hurricane deductibles: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington DC. Listed below are reports for these states detailing hurricane deductibles.