CSU Forecast for 2026 Hurricane Activity - July 8th Forecast Update

We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

(as of 8 July 2026)

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PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS (AFTER 7 JULY):

1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 17% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 8% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 10% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN (10–20°N, 88–60°W)
(AFTER 7 JULY):
1) 19% (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)

Source: CSU team

A link to the source and complete forecast is provide below.  A link to the pdf version is also provided.

The photo is of Katrina damage and is from the CatAdjuster.org Photo Gallery