CSU Forecast for 2023 Hurricane Activity

August 3rd Forecast Update

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2023

We maintain our forecast for an above-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. While a robust El Niño has developed and is likely to persist for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic has record warm sea surface temperatures for this time of year. El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is anticipated to counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

(as of 3 August 2023)

By Philip J. Klotzbach1, Michael M. Bell2 and Alexander J. DesRosiers3
In Memory of William M. Gray4

This discussion as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://tropical.colostate.edu

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A link to the full forecast update is provided below.

You can follow the links below for the full CSU Hurricane Seasonal forecast which is the source of the above information

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