2025 NHC Verification Report Preview

Atlantic Basin
John Cangialosi, Jon Martinez, and Philippe Papin

"The 2025 hurricane season is winding down, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is shifting focus from forecasting tropical cyclones to reflecting on the season’s activity and identifying ways to improve future predictions. As part of this annual process, NHC prepares detailed Tropical Cyclone Reports for each system and produces a comprehensive Verification Report that examines the accuracy and potential biases of NHC forecasts and real-time model guidance. While the full 2025 Verification Report will be released in the spring, this brief summary highlights some of the preliminary findings on NHC’s forecast performance for the Atlantic basin, based on both post-analysis and real-time best track data. For verification details on individual storms, visit the completed Tropical Cyclone Reports at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php

Atlantic Basin Season Activity and Track, Intensity, and Genesis Forecast Statistics

While the total numbers of tropical storms (13) and hurricanes (5) were slightly below the 30-year averages of 14 and 7, respectively, the season was notable for its three category 5 hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes (4) and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) were above the 30-year seasonal average with about 70% of the activity occurring after the typical peak of  the hurricane season (September 10). Perhaps most remarkable, the three Category 5 hur ricanes is the second-highest total on record, surpassed only by the 2005 season."

The above is from the 2025 NHC Verification Report Preview,  a link to the complete report is provided below, it is a 8 page pdf and contains additional information and images.