NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to ‘above normal’ Roy / Thursday, May 25, 2023 / Categories: Hurricanes Updated August 10, 2023 Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity with today’s update. Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event. NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May's outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season. NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season. Tags 2023 Hurricane Season More links 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Source of the above NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to ‘above normal’ August 10, 2023 Updated Forecast Related articles CSU Forecast for 2023 Hurricane Activity Comment Collapse Expand Comments (0) warning You don't have permission to post comments.