Quickly lets get right to it... Kyle still remains a threat for the southeast coast and Northern Florida.... As he is forced to travel west southwest underneath the building Western Atlantic Ridge. I do not know if Kyle will make landfall or whether the shear in such a movement will be sufficient to weaken or destroy the system. ... Kyle may end of getting trapped under the Ridge for several days.
Lili is back. Now before we carried away and forecasting 948 MB hurricanes like the GFDL does on the 0z run this morning.... Lets keep a few things in mind. First the 0z of the AVN takes Lili into New Orleans as it moves around the southeast Ridge. That is a possibility.
The 0z Canadian takes Lili into the Yucatan channel and then into Texas. That is a possibility.
The European does not have system but remember that the ECMWF is a 12z THURSDAY run and yesterday the system that is now Lili was a tropical wave… so the model wouldn't even carry it. Moreover the European is not a great tropical model for showing the development of tropical systems. Once the system exists it then the European does pretty good job.
The 0z UKMET takes a system into the Yucatan at 20 degrees north very close to Cancun.
MODEL BIAS
Now lets keep in mind to model bias here. With Isidore the Canadian handled the early stages of the track pretty well but then beyond 60 or 72 hours the Canadian consistently was the right and forecasting a curved track into the Panhandle Florida. Thus if we follow that bias trend with Lili... and given what we see on the front he morning Canadian... we end up with a track into the Yucatan and lower Texas.
The operational AVN had a same-sort of bias early on.... With its constant curving of Isidore into Florida in the eastern Gulf of Mexico…. Or the fact that beyond 72 hrs the AVN MISSED the west southwest movement… there was also a right bias. Again following this trend we see that a landfall not in New Orleans but one Texas using the AVN.
Many of the hurricane models have a DUE West track which looks like it's going to bring Lili into the Yucatan at the 96 hour time frame. Thus my inclination is to have Lili make landfall in the Yucatan or at least clip it as it tries to move into the Yucatan channel.
The overall synoptic pattern by this time next week does favor a turn to the Northwest so I do not believe that Lili would continue straight across the Yucatan into central Northern Mexico. Most of the MR models show a significant shortwave over the Great Basin day 5… which then moves east across the central Rockies and Plains… while a powerful 500MB Ridge sets up over the Southeast states. This Ridge clearly precludes Lili from affecting Florida anyway-- however that won't stop the FL mongerers from having a few days of Fantasy fun. In this overall upper air r pattern the weakness looks to be sufficient to turn Lili to the Northwest and favor a Texas or possibly Louisiana landfall. But the key is going to be that shortwave coming out of the great Basin; it's going to have to be at the right latitude to allow the hurricane to shift the Northwest. In the even that the s/w in the great Basin is weaker than what is currently depicted then what the NWP is showing this morning means Lili crashes into central Northern Mexico after hitting the Yucatan.
Once Lilly is inland year in Texas or Northern Mexico... given the overall pattern with the Ridge over the southeast coast and mean trough over the Rockies.... The rains from the system should move into much of the Plains and was Midwest and some form after October 5 -7.
WxRisk forecast for Lili; Yucatan then TX/LA
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Posted - 09/27/2002 : 10:38:49
