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R.D. Hood (Dave)
Posted on Saturday, April 08, 2000 - 12:05 am:   

Hey dude, just posting info for all.

Yup, have that publication, even have copies dating back to the late 1800's that are full of quips and tips, really enjoy reading them.

If the FA is right , we will all come bunk with you in West Texas.

Keep the 'cane shuffle going down there, and we will start it up here,
Posted on Friday, April 07, 2000 - 6:55 pm:   

Dave, find you a Farmer's Almanac and look thru there. It shows the possibility of strong storms hitting the Texas coast line this up and coming Hurricane season. Check it out.
R.D. Hood (Dave)
Posted on Friday, April 07, 2000 - 5:44 pm:   

Compare 2000 forecast to '99 season

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) -- Hurricane forecaster Bill
Gray predicts Atlantic and Gulf Coast residents will not be
battered by as many hurricanes this season as last year.

But nonetheless, the Atlantic Ocean will spawn 11 names
storms -- seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes --
in the six-month hurricane season which starts June 1,
Gray said Friday. Gray's updated numbers Friday match a
preliminary forecast he issued in December.

"We do not anticipate a season as active as those of the
years 1995, 1996, 1998 or 1999. Still, we believe we are
entering a new era for increased storm activity and for
East Coast landfalls by major storms, Gray said. "There is
a strong likelihood that in coming years we'll see more
major storms as we did during the 1940s, 1950s and

Long-term averages based on the period 1950-1990
indicate 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 intense
hurricanes per year.

Gray's 1999 forecast -- 14 named storms, nine hurricanes
and four major hurricanes -- was one of the more accurate
in recent years. The June 1-Nov. 30 season included 12
named storms, eight hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

The 2000 forecast, while anticipated to be less active than
several recent seasons, is still expected to exceed
significantly the average season during the relatively quiet
period between 1970-94.

La Nina remains a factor.

"As we see it now, we think things are progressing about
as we thought they would in our early December forecast,"
Gray said. "We do not believe that an El Nino will occur
this year. However, the very cold (La Nina) water that's
been out in the eastern equatorial tropical Pacific for the
last two years we think will modify some and not be quite
as cold.

"That is a bit of an enhancing factor for this year's

Gray says another "climate signal" is the "Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation," stratospheric, equatorial east-west winds,
ranging from 16 to 35 kilometers in altitude, that
oscillate. The direction changes every 26-30 months,
typically blowing for 12-16 months from the east, then
reversing and blowing 12-16 months from the west, then
back to easterly again.

The winds are expected to blow from the east, usually
promoting hurricane formation. But "this year the winds
have failed to drop as low as we expected, somewhat
neutralizing their effect."

Gray said that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures
continue to be relatively warm, indicating that the Atlantic
Ocean thermohaline circulation system, or Atlantic
conveyor belt, remains strong.

A strong Atlantic conveyor belt, Gray and colleagues
believe, contributes to the formation of greater numbers of
major or intense (Saffir-Simpson category 3-5) storms.

It increases the probability of major hurricane landfall on
the U.S. East Coast and in the Caribbean. Gray has
frequently noted that the Atlantic conveyor belt, as
measured by relatively high sea surface temperatures and
high salinity in the North Atlantic, was strong during the
period from the 1930s through the late 1960s, when major
storms lashed the Eastern Seaboard.

On the Web:
Colorado State University Forecast Team

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