| Author |
Message |
Horace Smith
| | Posted on Monday, November 05, 2001 - 9:52 am: | |
An old song says, "With a little bit of luck we'll do no work". Well, that's bad luck of course, as Michelle avoids Florida.
Yet as a former Floridian, I predict there will indeed be some claims in this former Andrew area. Reports indicate there were 45 mph winds with higher gusts east of I-95 in Broward and Dade. That will produce some light wind, leakers and no claims (that have to be checked out).
These reported though insignificant claims will be the result of the heavy population density and the unusual claims consciousness which prevails in the area, in addition to the still vivid memories from Andrew.
I would suggest to newbies that this might be a good opportunity to learn to measure roofs, walk on tile, etc. By the way, east of I-95 is primarily FWUA country. |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Sunday, November 04, 2001 - 6:20 pm: | |
Ghost. did you means the Bahamas? Just when we're unpacking the gear, michelle appears to be moving closer to the keys, Now likely upper Keys will get hurricane force winds and Miami TS winds. |
Clayton Carr
| | Posted on Sunday, November 04, 2001 - 1:56 pm: | |
Hi Ghost, Bermuda is a beautiful and very expensive Island to visit or to work in. Most of the "cottages" - their term for their homes - are stucco over HCB and solidly constructed, covered with a clay or stone tile roof. I have an acquaintance who is an expat working there in their #1 industry - Reinsurance, which is followed by #2 the captive insurance market, then primary carriers for off shore insurance. The Island is quite British, but well educated and highly employed. Expats working there temporary or otherwise are not highly regarded. Almost everything but Rum is imported to the Island. Rental accomodations as we know them "on the road" do not exist. The US buck is the currency of choice and their dollar floats as an equivilant. A bottle of Coke is about $4 or $5, and you have to ask for ice in your glass, and average dinner is at least $40., and all the major resort hotel rooms (and that's all there is is resort accom) are plus $250 per night; class B and a few rental cottages are all plus $100 per night. Don't spend any time figuring out how to lash the pontoons to the truck - a nonresident can not bring a vehicle nor can a nonresident rent a vehicle. Only trans method for us would be water taxi, land taxi, or rent a moped; but the bus service is fine if one is not in a rush. Hamilton is the major city with most of the commercial development, but the whole Island is heavily populated; with narrow winding roads (remember to drive on the opposite side with your scooter)with coral cliff walls rising at the pavement edge as shoulders. |
Ghostbuster (Ghostbuster)
| | Posted on Sunday, November 04, 2001 - 12:47 pm: | |
My fellow CADOites, I suspect that little Jimmy Flynt has snuck in and siphoned off some of our hurricane steering potion, again. I don't know who else to blame it on... I just wish he hadn't developed such a taste for the stuff.
If you look at the map, Bermuda appears to be in line for a visit from Michelle. If I have to, I'll strap some pontoons on my truck to get over there. Has anybody worked over there? |
alan jackson (Ajackson)
| | Posted on Sunday, November 04, 2001 - 12:25 pm: | |
Try calling the following:
Castro Claims Service, Inc. Heard daily rate was 29.99, (american) bring your own tent, food, water etc... translator will be provided. Settlements made at gunpoint. |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Sunday, November 04, 2001 - 12:03 pm: | |
Looks like most of us will be able to go back to sleep later today, maybe a few smallclaims not likely more then that |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 9:07 pm: | |
Don't leave home yet, in all likelyhood Michelle has started her turn, another tease, with TS winds for the keys and some rain. It's looking a lot like two years with out a landfall in US. I wounder who does claims in Cuba |
ToddSummers
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 8:59 pm: | |
Kile, I'm gonna have to hire a driver to get me to Florida now .... my sides are aching from laughing at your post . I dated a Michelle like that , too ( maybe it's the same one !)lol
Mark, I heard from Crawford.
Is anyone really on the road yet ?
Sweet dreams Ghost.I feel the same way, and just think of all that energy I wasted chopping all a dat firewood. |
Ghostbuster (Ghostbuster)
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 8:25 pm: | |
Now, what we need to put the icing on the cake, is for a 8.5 earthquake in Southern California. This would split the troops in two directions and increase our value by 1/3.
This is the kind of delicious fantasy I have. It has happened before. Remember Hugo and the World Series quake? How about Andrew and Iniki? Aaahh...I'll have sweet dreams tonight. |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 3:28 pm: | |
Most models are showing it missing the keys to the south, not time to pack the bags yet. We may know more by this time tomorrow, but then maybe not. Miami is at 19% key west 23% |
Wray Decker
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 3:05 pm: | |
Looks like the real thing.What % are you hearing? |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 2:55 pm: | |
Talking to people it seems like every vendor is on the phones or posting here. Haven't heard of anyone being contacted by Crawford? |
Kile Anderson (Kileanderson)
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 10:15 am: | |
I'm getting a bad feeling about this one. The meanest, most spiteful girl I ever dated was named Michelle. To this day I cringe when I hear the name. If this 'cane is anything like the girl I knew, she'll hang around, call all of our friends bad mouthing us and then let all of the air out of our tires. Whatever you do, don't let her see you with another hurricane. |
Ghostbuster (Ghostbuster)
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 10:06 am: | |
OK, you bunch of fruit loops and salted peanuts, let's NOT go and jinx this with your negative thoughts and sour attitudes!
Here at Claims Command Central we are brewing a special concoction of elixirs and potions in the big, black cauldron. It is specifically designed to provide spiritual guideing currents to bring our girl due north.
Now, I don't want to see any one of you sneaking in for a free sample. This is not Viagra juice. Just walk on by and leave it alone. We're a gonna need every drop to lure her into the Gulf. |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 9:45 am: | |
Michelle at 7 a.m. EST Saturday morning: -- 19.0 north, 84.2 west -- 205 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba -- Wind sustained at 130 mph with gusts to 160 mph (Cat 3) -- Movement is nearly stationary On satellite Saturday morning, Michelle is a picture perfect hurricane. Finding its movement over the past 24 hours has been tricky, as it is basically wobbling on its axis. As of the 5 am EST Saturday infrared satellite, most of the convection has shifted to the eastern side of the storm. There is still one main eyewall structure, very evident on the satellite picture, but a second eyewall is trying to develop. We've got some strong disagreements amongst the models Saturday morning. The AVN/MRF solution agrees with previous thinking, taking Michelle over western Cuba during the day Sunday, then just south of the Florida Keys and into the Bahamas Sunday night into Monday. What determines Michelle's future movement will be the development of an upper level trough in the eastern U.S. If the trough is able to dig southward quickly enough, it will pick up Michelle and exit her into the Atlantic after moving through the Bahamas. If the trough doesn't stretch far enough southward or develops slower, Michelle would tend to remain stationary, eventually weakening itself after churning up the same waters for several days. One model, the GFDL, has Michelle making landfall in southwest Florida then takes it up the eastern seaboard. That is not the solution we are going with at present. The most likely scenario is for Michelle to move slowly northward Saturday, then take a turn to the northeast by the time it passes over Cuba. She will undergo some weakening as she moves toward and eventually over Cuba as it interacts with land and also becomes subject to some westerly shear. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for the Florida Keys, while a hurricane warning is now in effect for western Cuba. Serious flooding and damaging wind gusts will hit western Cuba as Michelle draws near later Saturday into Sunday |
Ridgewalker
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 6:33 am: | |
I just saw on CNN forecast and still 7mph moving north, with 125 winds,940 mb, 200 mi south of cuba. but best tracks are to the west and central of cuba coming "maybe" across tip of florida, going to bahamas, it may stay out there a gin a while and head more north than east, potential to strenghten to cat 4 cane, we hope.
the ole wait and see, how many are on the road down 95 south?? |
Ridgewalker
| | Posted on Saturday, November 03, 2001 - 6:12 am: | |
Well, I hope the "Cane" hits and is good for all adjusters, as posts have indicated, we have a lot of time on our hands.
Now, remember, all those slams against the vendors, and after hurricane hits, post back and "tell" us who you are working for, what the rate is, daily, fee and post it. do it now so that we may think about it all year and start slamming them, when we are not active.
seriously, I do hope all gets some work, this time of year is a need for one and all. I have worked since 12-26-00 and still working, but am pondering my options as to leaving this daily and trying the 'cane' on for size. think it depends on how big, and where it eventually lands.
but at the least "stay safe" |
Kile Anderson (Kileanderson)
| | Posted on Friday, November 02, 2001 - 10:59 pm: | |
BarometerBob
Hurricane Michelle Update!!!!!
Fri Nov 2 22:57:31 2001
Hurricane Michelle is begining to really get her act together. Winds are now at 110 mph, and this is forecast to strengthen even more. The Barometric Pressure at 10pm was 957MB, thats a drop of 10 MB in 6 hours. The High Pressure aloft is spectacular, as well as the ever increasing outflow pattern.
This is what concerns me!
The dome of High Pressure is ever increasing northward, this is a possible indication that things towards the north are more favorable then previously expected as for steering, if the trough was going to affect this system, then we would see, or will see this outflow be flattened from the Northwest. This would show the Trough is approaching and we should see a turn towards the Northesat very soon.
But this ahsn't occured yet!!!
The GFDL is showing still the northward track as it did 4 days ago. If the GFDL did a turn back towards a previous forecast, then why didn't the AVN or any of the other models. The UKMET and GFDL are still north of the projected track from the NHC, the NHC is sticking with the AVN.
The Bermuda High is in place as is a Upper Level Low Pressure just east of it. There is a High Pressure to the east of the Hurricane, in the Eastern Caribbean, as is a thin area of High Pressure that is weakening and being broken up by the outter edges of the outflow/High Pressure aloft. This leads me to beleive that the storm will possibly continue on a north track, with wobbles from west to east, and bring the center of the storm on or just off the Western Tip of Cuba in 36 hours or so. This would mean the forward motion will also pick up, and this would give the Hurricane more advance on the Trough that will eventually cause it to move Northeast and by then into the West Coast of Florida.
The question still remains as to when and where the turn Northeast will occur, and if it happens after, then sooner, then we will be seeing a very strong Hurricane making landfall on the West Coast of Florida, either by sunday or as late as monday evening depending on how far north it actually gets when the turn occurs.
So with this said, ALL RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THEIR LOCAL WEATHER OUTLETS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION THAT WILL BE ISSUDE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER!!!!!!
Stop in at Hurricane Hollow Weather Chat tomorrow at 8pm, as we discuss the Hurricane Michelle, and join the Live Broadcast at HurricaneCity.com!!! |
Kile Anderson (Kileanderson)
| | Posted on Friday, November 02, 2001 - 9:29 pm: | |
I'm listening to Hurricanecity.com's web broadcast. I'm also in the Hurricane Hollow weather chat room. It appears that many people who have studied hurricanes for more than 20 years are talking about a cat 3/4 hitting around the Ft. Meyers/Sarasota area. We'll just have to wait and see. |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Friday, November 02, 2001 - 8:51 pm: | |
MICHELLE HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY...AS EXPECTED...AND REMAINS IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. RECON REPORTED A DROPSONDE PRESSURE OF 957MB ABOUT 45 MINUTES AGO AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS IMPRESSIVE. A CIRCULAR EYE IS EMBEDDED IN SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE PICTURES AS FAR NORTH AS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...600 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE CENTER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ALL OF THE KNOWN FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. IN FACT...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB ARE UP TO AN INCREDIBLE 6.0...OR 110 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 360/6...AND IT APPEARS THAT MICHELLE IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE WITH SOME REGULARITY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...INDUCING MORE OF A NORTHERLY MOVE AS THE MICHELLE HAS BUILT INTO THE MEAN STEERING LAYER. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE MICHELLE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST. FROM THERE MICHELLE MAY TURN SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT.
MICHELLE IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH A EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. AS SUCH...IT MAY SERVE TO CREATE SOME RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE WHERE SOME MASS SINK IS OCCURRING...FROM THE OUTFLOW DUMPING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS RIDGE MAY NOT BE KNOCKED DOWN AS RAPIDLY AS IS FORECAST BY THE AVN MODEL. FOR THIS REASON...THIS MAY DULL THE TURN AND POSE A THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL UKMET MODEL RUNS...AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT GFDL MODEL. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...AND IS CLOSING IN ON A CLOSE PASS TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEYOND MINIMAL CATEGORY THREE STATUS...AND AS A CONSEQUENCE...IT WILL NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM NEAR 21 NORTH. THIS MEANS THAT MICHELLE COULD STILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA COAST. THIS COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH A PASS NORTH OF CUBA...OR IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND FOR A SHORTER THAN FORECAST. IN ANY EVENT...WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TOMORROW.
WATKINS--11030215Z |
John Turk
| | Posted on Friday, November 02, 2001 - 8:32 pm: | |
Its a sure thing to hit Florida!!
Thats due to me taking assignment in Brrrrrr
Michigan.
Have a large time in the land of SUN, your welcome everyone! |
mark (Olderthendirt)
| | Posted on Friday, November 02, 2001 - 4:58 pm: | |
One thing we know later on we can brag about how many companies called us for standby, good chance that that will be the only excitement we get out of this |
Kile Anderson (Kileanderson)
| | Posted on Friday, November 02, 2001 - 3:32 pm: | |
I think it may hit the keys, but it isn't going to hit the mainland because I need the work. |
Bill B McGillacutti
| | Posted on Friday, November 02, 2001 - 3:20 pm: | |
Where do you think this storm is going to go? Is it going to hit the US mainland? What do you think of Cat Companies that are too lazy to call you and ask you to call them if you want to work?
{Bulletin Board Transfer} |
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