host posted on September 01, 2006 17:49
Dr, Gray reduces the number of hurricanes again.
September 1, 2006 Forecast Update
Named Storms - 13
Hurricanes - 5
Intense Hurricanes - 2
In the latest forecast Dr. Gray states;
Causes of August 2006 Over-Forecast
"We view our overestimate of the 2006 hurricane season as a result of our inability to predict the substantial amounts of tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness and the extensive amount of African dust that enveloped this area in August. Rainfall in the African Sahel has also been lower than expected.
Another factor leading to a less active hurricane season is the continued development of El Niño-like conditions in the eastern Pacific. This has resulted in a modest suppression of 200 mb upper tropospheric easterly wind anomalies in the tropical Atlantic, thereby increasing vertical wind shear in the western Atlantic. Also, there has likely been an increase in subsidence over the tropical Atlantic due to an eastward shift of the Walker Circulation as waters have continued to warm in the central and eastern Pacific.
The increase of this year’s August hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific is another indication of suppressed Atlantic conditions. These two tropical cyclone basins have tended to be negatively correlated in recent years. When eastern Pacific activity is enhanced, as it has been this August, Atlantic activity is usually suppressed. "
Click Here to read the full September 1 Forecast Update