NOAA’s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook update indicates an 85% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

The conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions predicted in our May outlook are now in place over the tropical Atlantic. These conditions, combined with strong early-season activity, yield increased confidence that the 2008 season will be above normal. We expect 2008 to be the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began in 1995.

Although seasons with similar conditions to those now in place and seasons with similar early-season activity have generally been above-normal, they have featured a wide range of activity. Allowing for uncertainties, we estimate a 67% probability for each of the following seasonal (June-November) ranges, all of which are above average:

• 14-18 named storms,
• 7-10 Hurricanes,
• 3-6 Major Hurricanes,
• An ACE range 140%-230% of the median

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"Catastrophe modelers estimate the insured losses from Hurricane Dolly will be less than $1 billion.

Newark, Calif.-based Risk Management Solutions Inc. said Thursday that insured losses from the Category 2 hurricane that struck southern Texas near the Mexican border on Wednesday would not exceed $750 million. RMS noted that the hurricane did not cause significant damage to offshore oil platforms.

Boston-based AIR Worldwide Corp. estimated late Wednesday that while storm losses could range from $300 million to $1.2 billion, it expected losses to total about $600 million. AIR, a unit of the Insurance Services Office Inc., estimated insured losses in Mexico to be less than one-quarter of U.S. insured losses. "(Source: businessinsurance.com)